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Mortgage rates to stay over 6% for next two years, Fannie says

Plus: Builder confidence goes up

Hi and welcome back to Mortgage Nuggets. Today’s newsletter is 648 words, a 2-minute read. Let’s dive in…

Coming up: Fed Meeting Today: Interest-Rate Decision at 2 p.m. LINK

Disclaimer: Average mortgage rates as of Mar 19, 2024. © MND's Daily Rate Index.

1. Fannie Mae's new 2024 predictions

Strong employment numbers and hotter-than-expected inflation data won’t provide the Fed greater confidence to ease its monetary policy in the near term, Fannie Mae said this week. As a result, mortgage rates will remain higher for longer than expected.

Fannie Mae expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average...

  • 6.7% in Q2 2024 (previous forecast: 6.3%)

  • 6.6% in Q3 2024 (p: 6.1%)

  • 6.4% in Q4 2024 (p: 5.9%)

  • 6.3% in Q1 2025 (p: 5.8%)

  • 6.2% in Q2 2025 (p: 5.7%)

  • 6.1% in Q3 2025 (p: 5.7%)

  • 6.0% in Q4 2025 (p: 5.7%)

p = previous forecast published last month.

2. HomeServices last to settle in $5.4 billion lawsuit

HomeServices of America, a Berkshire Hathaway affiliate, faces a potential $4.7 billion in damages as the last holdout defendant in the Sitzer Burnett trial.

Sitzer | Burnett plaintiffs asked the court to order the Berkshire Hathaway affiliate to pay most of the nearly $5.4B damages award after NAR, Keller Williams, Anywhere, and RE/MAX settled.

3. Builder confidence goes up

Homebuilders are feeling more confident about their businesses than they have since last summer, as they see better demand despite stubbornly high mortgage rates.

Homebuilder sentiment rose 3 points in March to 51 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. The reading gained for the fourth straight month, hitting its highest level since July.

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4. Catch up quick

🔐 The lock-in effect has cost the housing market 1.3 million home sales and put upward pressure on U.S. home prices. (FHFA Research)

1️⃣ Digital lender Better Mortgage launches one-day HELOC product. (Better)

🚫 A Florida man who refused to sell his home to a developer now lives in the shadows. (NPR)

💰 20 banks with the largest wholesale mortgage volume in Q4. (NMN)

5. Home price growth returns to pre-pandemic levels

Source: Redfin

Home price growth is finally back to where it was before the pandemic following a three-year rollercoaster ride in which prices soared when ultra-low mortgage rates fueled a homebuying frenzy and cooled when rates jumped due to the Federal Reserve’s effort to quell inflation.

  • Home prices climbed 0.6% from a month earlier in February, on par with the 0.6% average monthly gain in the roughly eight years leading up to the pandemic.

Prices seesawed during and after the pandemic, rising by as much as 2% month over month in January 2022 and falling by as much as 0.2% in August 2022.

6. PennyMac settles trade secret dispute with Black Knight for $158.4 Million

PennyMac has settled a legal dispute with Black Knight for $158.4 million over accusations of copying mortgage servicing technology. The issue began when Black Knight claimed PennyMac created a similar platform to theirs, leading to a five-year legal battle.

As part of the settlement, PennyMac keeps its tech and faces no use restrictions. PennyMac's profit dropped in 2023, but it remains optimistic about its technology's future.

You’re all caught up. See you on Friday!

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