Home sales fell in June, prices hit another record

Plus: Fannie Mae economists expect two rate cuts in 2024

Welcome back to Mortgage Nuggets, your tri-weekly dose of key mortgage news. Today’s newsletter is 648 words, a 2.5-minute read.

Disclaimer: Average mortgage rates as of July 23, 2024. © MND's Daily Rate Index.

1. Home sales fell in June, prices hit another record

Existing-home sales fell in June as the median sales price climbed to the highest price ever recorded for the second consecutive month, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

  • Existing-home sales fell 5.4% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.89 million. Sales also slumped 5.4% from one year ago.

  • The median existing-home sales price jumped 4.1% from June 2023 to $426,900 – the second straight month it reached an all-time high.

  • The inventory of unsold existing homes rose 3.1% from the previous month to 1.32 million at the end of June, or the equivalent of 4.1 months' supply at the current monthly sales pace.

More: This map shows the home price change since March 2020 for every county.

2. Mortgage delinquencies hit a six-month high in June

The national delinquency rate rose 14.5% in June from the month before, according to loan-level data from Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) on Monday.

  • In June, the number of borrowers missing a single payment rose by 19.6%.

  • Serious delinquencies, which refer to payments on outstanding loans due past 90 days, were up 5.1%.

  • The top five states where the serious delinquency rate was the highest were Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Arkansas, and Indiana.

The national delinquency rate jumped in June partly because the month ended on a Sunday, and payments made on the last day of the month weren't processed in time to be included in the data set; they rolled over to the following month, ICE said.

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3. More Nuggets

💸 How down payment-assistance programs can help clear the path to homeownership. (CNBC)

🏢 U.S. commercial real estate Is headed toward a crisis. (Harvard Business Review)

📈 CoStar Group's revenue grew 12% YOY to $678M, according to Q2 earnings Tuesday. (Yahoo)

😬 Nearly 15% of home-purchase agreements were canceled in June. (Redfin)

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4. Fannie Mae economists expect two rate cuts in 2024

The Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in both September and December 2024.

This expectation is based on recent lower-than-expected inflation data and signs of slowing in the labor market. Specifically, two consecutive lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports.

They now expect the CPI to end the year at 2.9 percent and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index to end at 2.5 percent.

5. Charted: Unemployment rate by state in June 2024

In June 2024, the unemployment rate came in at 4.1%. That’s up slightly from June 2023, when the unemployment rate stood at 3.6%. Here’s the jobless rate by state:

☀️ You’re all caught up. See you on Friday!

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