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Fannie Mae lowers housing forecast for 2025

Fannie Mae lowers housing forecast for 2025

Plus: Mark Willis steps down as Keller Williams CEO

January 24, 2025

😅 In case you haven't heard the big news, it's Friday. Today's newsletter is 845 words, a 3.5-minute read.

Disclaimer: Average mortgage rates as of Jan 23, 2025. © MND Daily Rate Index.

1. Fannie Mae lowers housing forecast for 2025

Fannie Mae cut its 2025 housing outlook, citing persistently high mortgage rates and affordability challenges. It now projects $1.92 trillion in mortgage originations, down from December's $1.97 trillion, with 30-year fixed rates ending 2025 at 6.5%, up 20 basis points from the prior 6.3% forecast.

Home sales estimates for 2025 dropped to 4.89 million units, down from 5 million previously, and 2026 sales were revised to 5.25 million from 5.47 million. Refinance projections also fell by $33 billion to $496 billion. (LINK)

"While we still see signs of resilience in the labor market, the higher mortgage rates that are associated with a growing economy will likely continue the affordability challenges faced by many potential homebuyers"

Mark Palim, Fannie Mae's chief economist

2. Mark Willis steps down as Keller Williams CEO

Mark Willis is stepping down as CEO and president of Keller Williams just over one year after returning to the role.

Willis first joined Keller Williams in 1991. He initially served as president from 2002 to 2005 and as CEO from 2005 to 2014. He then resumed the post of CEO in November 2023 and took over as president again in March of last year. Now, he will transition into the role of chief leadership officer, a position created by Willis and Keller Williams Co-Founder Gary Keller.

“I have nothing but the deepest gratitude and respect for Mark and his decades of leadership within our organization,” Keller wrote in a company-wide email, according to HousingWire. “When Mark first re-joined our team, he and I talked about that role as Mark’s true calling, and I’m energized that this is finally happening.”

📚 Your Event ROI Isn’t What It Could Be—and How to Fix It

Choosing which mortgage industry events to attend or invest in can feel overwhelming.

Whether you’re an attendee looking for valuable insights and connections, or a company weighing the ROI of an event, it’s tough to know where to spend your time and money.

In our latest blog, Mortgage Industry Events: A Loan Officer’s Roadmap, we identify the must-attend events to strategies for maximizing ROI—NO FLUFF.

You’ll find:

The 2025 Must-Attend Events: A breakdown of the conferences most likely to deliver results for your time and money.
How to Maximize ROI: We cover strategies for success before, during, and after the event. Learn how to plan effectively, structure conversations with vendors and partners, and follow up to drive growth.

Get the insights you need to make the most of your next mortgage event—read the full blog here.

3. More Nuggets

⬇️ Housing shortage, not volatile rates, is biggest obstacle for buyers, Zillow CEO. (WSJ)

🏡 Only 28% of Americans who planned to buy a home in 2024 actually did—young buyers feel ‘trapped between a rock and a hard place’. (CNBC)

🎬 Appraiser at center of Rocket Mortgage lawsuit has license revoked. (HousingWire)

🧐 The head of CFPB Rohit Chopra has packed up his office. But will Trump fire him? (APNews)

🚨 Coach’s Corner

It’s gonna sound like I lost my mind but figure out your Anti Niche! Tune in for what I am talking about. (Youtube)

— Dave Krichmar CEO

4. Mortgage delinquency rate increased 4% year-over-year in December

The national delinquency rate eased 2 basis points (bps) to 3.72% in December, but rose 4.0% year over year – the seventh consecutive annual increase – ending 2024 near a three-year high

Early-stage delinquencies fell 41K (-3.6%) in the month, while serious delinquencies (loans 90+ days past due but not in active foreclosure) continued their slow climb – up 29K (+5.7%) in the month and a fifth consecutive rise year over year.

Foreclosure sales declined by 5K (-5.6%) in December, hitting their lowest level in nearly two years, while foreclosure inventory climbed 7K (+3.8%), but was down -10.7% year-over-year. (ICE)

5. Mortgage applications mostly flat from last week

Mortgage applications increased 0.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 17, 2025.

The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 42 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier.

“Mortgage application volume was little changed last week, but there was a small increase in conventional purchase volume, which brought the level of total purchase volume up almost 2 percent above last year at this time”

Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Chief Economist.

☀️ You’re all caught up. See you on Monday!

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