Builder confidence falls on tariff concerns

Plus: Share of mortgage loans in forbearance decreases to 0.40% in January

February 19, 2025

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Disclaimer: Average mortgage rates as of Feb 18, 2025. © MND Daily Rate Index.

1. Share of mortgage loans in forbearance decreases to 0.40% in January

The MBA monthly loan monitoring survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 0.47% of servicers’ portfolio volume in December to 0.40% as of January 31, 2025. MBA estimates 200,000 homeowners remain in forbearance.

  • The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 2 basis points to 0.17% in January 2025. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased by 19 basis points to 0.88%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) remained the same as the prior month at 0.40%.

By reason, 64.1% of borrowers are in forbearance for reasons such as a temporary hardship caused by job loss, death, divorce, or disability. Another 32.9% are in forbearance because of a natural disaster. The remaining 3.0% of borrowers are still in forbearance because of COVID-19.

2. Zillow claims off-MLS home sellers left more than $1 billion on the table the past two years

New Zillow research reveals a significant financial impact on home sellers who did not list their properties on the MLS. Over the past two years, sellers who transacted off the MLS collectively left more than $1 billion on the table.

The study examined home sales from 2023 and 2024, finding that homes sold off the MLS typically sold for $4,975 less than those listed on the MLS, a median loss of 1.5% nationwide. The loss is much more significant in some areas; sellers in California, for example, typically gave up more than $30,000 selling off the MLS.

The negative financial impact of off-MLS sales was widespread, affecting sellers in 44 out of the 46 states included in the study. Notably, sellers in 33 states experienced median losses exceeding 1%, and 10 states saw losses greater than 2%.

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3. More Nuggets

💸 KW founder Gary Keller says agents must accept "easy deals" are dead. (Inman)

📝 New real estate rules threatened to upend homebuying for Americans. Here’s what experts say has changed. (CNN)

📈 Study: Demand for employee surveillance software ballooned 54%. (Insider)

🏘️ As buyers fail to show up, more homes are being pulled from sale. (WSJ)

⚠️ Jury awards over $6.6M to tenants in toxic mold lawsuit. (MultifamilyDive)

🤼 Win some, lose some: Appraisers wrestle with the CFPB’s dismantling. (LHG)

💰 Fannie Mae blames multifamily fraudsters in part for it setting aside $752 million for fraud or suspected fraud. (Bloomberg)

4. Judge halts CFPB firings

A federal judge in Washington, D.C., ordered that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau cannot terminate more employees for now, providing a major reprieve to staff at the agency, who have been bracing for mass layoffs. More than 100 workers had already been fired.

  • The order comes after members of the DOGE team were seen in the building, and were given access to key systems.

Judge Amy Berman Jackson of the U.S. District Court in Washington also said the agency cannot "delete" or "remove" data held by the CFPB, while also saying the agency cannot transfer money from its reserve funds unless it's for operational reasons.

5. Builder confidence falls on tariff concerns

Builder sentiment fell sharply in February over concerns on tariffs, elevated mortgage rates and high housing costs.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 42 in February, down five points from January and the lowest level in five months, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

“Uncertainty on the tariff front helped push builders’ expectations for future sales volume down to the lowest level since December 2023. Incentive use may also be weakening as a sales strategy as elevated interest rates reduce the pool of eligible home buyers.”

NAHB Chairman Carl Harris

6. Workers are back to their cubicles

Share who say they're working mostly in office, remote or hybrid

The office is back. The share of people who reported working mostly in-person doubled in 2024 from the previous year, according to a McKinsey survey.

As hiring slows and workers feel stuck, employers are using their newly strengthened upper hand to finally get what they want: employees back in the office.

"There is a perception among senior leaders that productivity is better accomplished in office," said Brooke Weddle, a senior partner at McKinsey.

☀️ You’re all caught up. See you on Friday!

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