67% of Americans expect a housing market crash

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Welcome to the 268 new folks joining us since Monday. Let's dive in!

1. The new first-time homebuyer

The outlook for first-time homebuyers is bleak. The double whammy of skyrocketing home prices and surging interest rates has pushed homeownership further out of reach.

According to the NAR, the typical first-time homebuyer is now;

• Older, with the median age reaching 36

• Richer - higher income

• More likely to be moving right from their parent's home

• More likely to be unmarried

The median age of 36 is the highest since the NAR started surveying buyers in 1981.

The pandemic exacerbated inequalities in the housing market and created a greater divide between those who already own a home and those still searching for an opportunity.

Between 2021 - 2022, first-time buyers also accounted for only 26% of all home purchases, the lowest percentage ever, according to the NAR.

Housing advocates worry that long-term obstacles for first-time buyers will continue to mount without some large-scale intervention.

2. 67% of Americans expect a housing market crash

Nerdwallet has released its annual home buyer report, showing that 67% of Americans believe a housing market crash is imminent within the next three years.

Other highlights;

• 32% of survey respondents said they feel worse about their ability to buy in 2023 compared to last year, primarily due to a worsening economy, high mortgage rates, and high home prices.

• 83% of survey respondents said that buying a home is a priority.

• 11% of respondents said they plan to buy a house in the next 12 months and plan to spend roughly $270,000.

• 26% of those who had been unsuccessful in purchasing a home in 2022 canceled or postponed their plans because they couldn’t afford it anymore.

Overall, home ownership is still a big milestone for the survey respondents, but factors such as the economy and mortgage rates are holding buyers back.

3. Experts Call for Overhaul of US Appraisal System

A report by the National Fair Housing Alliance has found that the appraisal industry in the US largely regulates itself, unlike other sectors in housing finance.

Experts suggest that the system should be completely rebuilt to address bias in the appraisal system. The CFPB director, Rohit Chopra, said that many people do not understand how the complex system works.

The Appraisal Foundation, an industry-run private nonprofit, establishes standards for appraisers, which are then adopted by each state. However, the board of the Foundation is dominated by appraisers, lenders, banking institutions, and industry trade groups, with no representation from consumers or fair housing advocates.

To address this issue, Chopra and others suggest increasing accountability in the system. The MBA also agrees with the need for changes and supports reforms that would lead to more independent oversight of appraisers.

4. More Nuggets

Michael Hild, former Live Well CEO to be sentenced in $200M bond fraud (NMP)

Rocket Mortgage cuts 50 positions (ASR)

Nine cities where rent actually declined in 2022 (Axios)

5. Meme of the day

🧠 How to: A scientific guide on how to stop procrastinating.

☀️ See you on Wednesday!

p.s. If you like this newsletter, your friends may too. Forward it to a friend, and let them know they can subscribe here. Written by Ian M.