2024 forecast for the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

👻 Welcome to Monday. Today’s newsletter is 522 words, a 2-minute read.

1. 2024 forecast for the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

Fannie Mae expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 6.7% in Q4 2024. The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts 6.1% in Q4 2024, and Goldman Sachs expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.8% in Q4 2024.

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Major mortgage rate forecasts have significantly missed the mark in the last two years raising the question: can we trust mortgage rate predictions at all right now? Reply and let me know your thoughts.

2. All-cash home purchases are on the rise

With existing inventory scarce, all-cash purchases are rising, with a notable bump occurring in the new-home market, according to Census Q3 data.

The share of new single-family constructions bought with cash grew to 9.2% of sales in Q3, rising from 7.1% in Q2, a new report from the National Association of Home Builders said. The jump of more than two percentage points is tied for the largest quarterly increase since 2010.

3. More Nuggets

⚖️ Judge denies effort to squash claims in agent commission case. Home sellers are seeking as much as $4 billion in damages. (NMN)

💰 Americans are spending more money, but their incomes aren't keeping up. (Axios)

💸 Profit margins on typical home sales nationwide increased to 59% in Q3, the second straight quarterly increase. (Attom)

4. Whitehouse plan to turn more offices into apartments

The Biden administration has a new plan to turn more empty office spaces into housing, officials announced Friday. The move comes as U.S. office vacancies have hit a 30-year high, according to Biden's Council of Economic Advisers.

A toolkit highlighting over 20 federal programs has been released to facilitate building conversions. "This presents an area of opportunity to both increase housing supply while revitalizing Main Street," White House National Economic Council director Lael Brainard said.

Some of the programs include:

1. $10 billion in HUD grants to cover pre-development, acquisition, construction, and other costs.

2. Land dispositions that reduce development costs, with DOT permitting transit agencies to transfer properties to local governments, non-profit, and for-profit developers of affordable housing at no cost

3. ~$35 billion in below-market loans that can be used to finance conversions near transportation.

Go deeper.

5. Fannie, Freddie investors win prejudgment interest on $299M verdict

A judge in Washington ruled that some investors in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should get early interest on $299 million out of a bigger $612 million amount they were awarded after a re-evaluation of a case that found that the FHFA improperly amended stock purchase agreements in 2012.

An eight-person jury held that the FHFA owed Fannie Mae's junior preferred shareholders $299.4 million and Freddie Mac's junior preferred backers $281.8 million, alongside other compensations. This case underscores the ongoing legal challenges surrounding the amendment of stock purchase agreements by the FHFA.

☀️ See you on Wednesday!

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